The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.Peer reviewe

On the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Regression Problems in Sea Level Studies

Long sea level records with high temporal resolution are of paramount importance for future coastal protection and adaptation plans. Here we discuss the application of machine learning techniques to some regression problems commonly encountered when analyzing such time series. The performance of artificial neural networks is compared with that of multiple linear regression models on sea level data from the Swedish coast. The neural networks are found to be superior when local sea level forcing is used together with remote sea level forcing and meteorological forcing, whereas the linear models and the neural networks show similar performance when local sea level forcing is excluded. The overall performance of the machine learning algorithms is good, often surpassing that of the much more computationally costly numerical ocean models used at our institute

Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper

Dense blooms of filamentous diazotrophic cyanobacteria are formed every summer in the Baltic Sea. These autotrophic organisms may bypass nitrogen limitation by performing nitrogen fixation, which also governs surrounding organisms by increasing bioavailable nitrogen. The magnitude of the nitrogen fixation is important to estimate from a management perspective since this might counteract eutrophication reduction measures. Here, a cyanobacteria life cycle model has been implemented for the first time in a high-resolution 3D coupled physical and biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea, spanning the years 1850-2008. The explicit consideration of life cycle dynamics and transitions significantly improves the representation of the cyanobacterial phenological patterns compared to earlier 3D modeling efforts. Now, the rapid increase and decrease in cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea are well captured, and the seasonal timing is in concert with observations. The current improvement also had a large effect on the nitrogen fixation load and is now in agreement with estimates based on in situ measurements. By performing four phosphorus sensitivity runs, we demonstrate the importance of both organic and inorganic phosphorus availability for historical cyanobacterial biomass estimates. The model combination can be used to continuously predict internal nitrogen loads via nitrogen fixation in Baltic Sea ecosystem management, which is of extra importance in a future ocean with changed conditions for the filamentous cyanobacteria

Validation of Stratification-Driven Phytoplankton Biomass and Nutrient Concentrations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean as Simulated by EC-Earth

We validated simulations of the Earth system model (ESM) EC-Earth-NEMO of present-day temperature, salinity, nutrient, and chlorophyll a profiles with in situ observations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean (29–63º N). Simulations with standard parametrization (run 1) and improved parametrization of vertical mixing (run 2) were compared. Run 1 showed shallower mixed layer depths (MLDs) in spring as compared to observations owing to lower salinities in the upper 200 m of the subpolar North Atlantic (>55º N). This coincided with a mismatch with observed timing and magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom. In contrast, the model performed well south of 55º N. Run 2 showed improved springtime MLD, phytoplankton dynamics, and nutrient distributions in the subpolar North Atlantic. Our study underlines the sensitivity of subpolar North Atlantic phytoplankton blooms to surface freshening, suggesting that future fresh-water inflow from Arctic and Greenland Ice sheet melting could significantly aect phytoplankton productivity. These findings contribute to the generic validation of the EC-Earth ESM and underline the need for rigorousvalidation of physics-biology links, in particular the sub polar North Atlantic where complex seasonal stratification/vertical mixing processes govern upper ocean phytoplankton productivity

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

International audienceOcean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O 2 ). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O 2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O 2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O 2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×1014 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, −0.37 ± 0.15×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and −1.06 ± 0.68×10 14 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O 2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is −0.98×10 14 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O 2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O 2 . Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O 2 changes

The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6

Abstract. The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different HPC systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behaviour and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond